Retirement Simulator

Monte Carlo & historical simulation for retirement portfolios

Parameters

Simulation Mode

Historical uses real past data (deterministic). Monte Carlo randomizes years to create new hypothetical scenarios.

Starting Net Worth ($)

The portfolio value you'll have on day 1 of retirement. Include all investments you'll live off of.

Track your net worth with Empower

Retirement Length (Years)

How many years your money needs to last. For early retirees: current age to ~95. Traditional retirees often use 30 years. Longer = more conservative.

Withdrawal Strategy

Withdraws a fixed % of your *current* portfolio value every year. You will mathematically never run out of money, but your income will fluctuate wildly with the market.

Withdrawal Rate (%)

The famous '4% rule'. This is the % of your portfolio you spend in year 1, then adjust for inflation. Lower rate = safer but requires more savings. The 4% rule historically has ~95% success over 30 years.

Lower = safer but more savings needed

Fixed Amount ($)

After-tax spending target each year, adjusted for inflation. This is money in your pocket.

Min Annual Net ($)

Max Annual Net ($)

After-tax spending bounds (money in your pocket)

Crash Spending Rule

Simulates 'tightening your belt' during a crash. When your portfolio drops below the threshold from its all-time high, spending is reduced. Once the portfolio recovers above the threshold, spending returns to normal. This dramatically improves success rates.

Enable

If Portfolio Drops (%)

Cut Spending (%)

Cut applies when portfolio is more than 20% below its all-time high. Spending resumes when recovered above that threshold.

Social Security / Pension

Include Social Security, pensions, or part-time work income. SS claiming ages typically 62-70. Set end year for temporary income like part-time work.

Annual Benefit ($)

Starts in Year

0 = first year

Ends in Year (optional)

Leave empty for permanent

COLA (inflation adjusted)

Most Social Security benefits include Cost of Living Adjustments (COLA). Pensions typically don't.

Healthcare Costs

Healthcare expenses are ADDED ON TOP of your regular withdrawal amount. Model them separately since they typically grow 2-5% faster than general inflation. For US users, costs often drop at Medicare (age 65). Non-US users can set inflation to 0% if covered by universal healthcare.

Taxes & Fees

These reduce your effective returns. Tax rate affects how much you need to withdraw to get your desired spending. Fees drag on portfolio growth.

Tax Rate (%)

Most retirees see 10-22% effective rates

20% off H&R Block tax filing

Investment Fees (%)

Annual expense ratio

Initializing simulation...

Monte Carlo Retirement Simulator

Will your savings last through retirement? FIREwiz runs 500+ Monte Carlo and historical simulations using real market data from 1928–2023 to answer that question. Enter your portfolio balance, annual spending, and asset allocation to see your probability of success across a wide range of market conditions—including the Great Depression, stagflation, and the 2008 financial crisis.

Choose from 8 withdrawal strategies to find the right balance between spending flexibility and portfolio safety. Compare the classic 4% Rule against dynamic approaches like Guyton-Klinger guardrails, Variable Percentage Withdrawal (VPW), and Vanguard Dynamic Spending. Each strategy shows success rates, spending percentile ranges, and risk metrics including max drawdown and underwater years.

All results are displayed in real (inflation-adjusted) dollars, so “$40,000 in Year 20” means $40,000 of today's purchasing power. Adjust constraints like minimum spending floors and maximum ceilings, add Social Security income, or enable a glide path that shifts your allocation as you age.

Retirement Simulator

What would you like to know?

Will my savings last?

When can I retire?

Should I rent or buy?

Am I on track?

Parameters

Monte Carlo Retirement Simulator